Less than 24 hours after trading down to grab some extra picks and then trading back up to grab Johnny Manziel the Factory of Sadness got cranked up again and word leaked that Josh Gordon, Cleveland’s All Pro wide receiver, had failed a drug test and would be facing a full season suspension. As someone who grew up in Cleveland let me just say that none of this was surprising.
What WAS surprising to some people was that the Browns, holding the 3rd pick in the 2nd round, didn’t draft a WR there. Not only did they not draft one at the 35th pick, they didn’t pick one through the rest of the draft.
In the medium- to long-term the Browns will certainly need some help at WR now that it seems they can’t count on Josh Gordon. For help with this season, however, the draft pick would have almost certainly been a non-factor – especially after they passed on Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans in the first round.
Average 1st Season AV by Round Drafted
|
Position
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
|
C
|
4.0
|
2.9
|
1.2
|
1.9
|
1.2
|
0.4
|
0.6
|
|
DB
|
4.3
|
3.1
|
2.0
|
1.4
|
1.1
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
|
DE
|
4.7
|
2.1
|
1.6
|
1.5
|
1.2
|
0.5
|
0.7
|
|
DT
|
4.0
|
2.1
|
1.5
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
0.8
|
0.5
|
|
G
|
4.1
|
3.0
|
2.1
|
1.6
|
1.1
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
|
LB
|
5.9
|
3.6
|
1.9
|
1.4
|
1.0
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
|
QB
|
3.8
|
2.3
|
0.6
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
|
RB
|
6.7
|
4.2
|
2.7
|
1.9
|
1.1
|
1.2
|
0.4
|
|
T
|
5.2
|
4.6
|
2.0
|
1.4
|
0.8
|
0.7
|
1.2
|
|
TE
|
4.1
|
3.3
|
1.9
|
1.8
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
0.7
|
|
WR
|
5.2
|
3.1
|
1.6
|
1.4
|
0.7
|
0.3
|
0.5
|
|
Total
|
4.9
|
3.1
|
1.8
|
1.5
|
1.0
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
The fact that the Browns drafted a T at the 35th pick seems even better with the immediate need for help on the line and ability of tackles to contribute right away. WRs in the first round show strong performance, but those in later rounds underperform the average 1st year AV.
For reference, the averages for different levels of performance are:
|
Highest Performance
|
Avg AV
|
|
AP
|
13.6
|
|
PB
|
11.1
|
|
Starter
|
6.6
|
|
Roster
|
1.4
|
Finally, the list of wide receivers to deliver more than 10 units of AV since the 1994 draft is relatively short and heavily weighted to round 1. For most of the 20 years in the data set (11, to be precise) there are 0 receivers who reach 10 AV. There are 11 picks in the other 9 seasons who hit that threshold (Josh Gordon had 11 in 2013):
|
Year
|
Pick
|
Player
|
Tm
|
AV1
|
|
2013
|
76
|
Keenan Allen
|
SDG
|
10
|
|
2011
|
4
|
A.J. Green
|
CIN
|
10
|
|
2011
|
6
|
Julio Jones
|
ATL
|
10
|
|
2009
|
22
|
Percy Harvin
|
MIN
|
12
|
|
2006
|
252
|
Marques Colston
|
NOR
|
10
|
|
2003
|
54
|
Anquan Boldin
|
ARI
|
10
|
|
2001
|
36
|
Chad Ochocinco
|
CIN
|
16
|
|
1998
|
21
|
Randy Moss
|
MIN
|
17
|
|
1996
|
7
|
Terry Glenn
|
NWE
|
13
|
|
1996
|
18
|
Eddie Kennison
|
STL
|
10
|
|
1995
|
8
|
Joey Galloway
|
SEA
|
12
|
None of this means that Cleveland doesn’t need some help at WR. The Browns’ GM Ray Farmer knows it’s an issue and is likely looking at a number of different options including free agents. The fact that he passed up the crowd-pleasing WR pick to stay true to where he and the Browns’ front office team had players slotted should encourage fans that he has a strong process for finding the necessary support.