Now that I have dropped
10,000 words on how I think that draft picks should be valued it’s time to
look at some of the other conclusions we can pull from the same data set. For
instance, each pick has an expected value and we can go back into the data to
see which teams have had the best drafts since 1994. While I believe career
surplus value is a better measure within draft classes (i.e., which team had
the best draft of 1995), we will rank the performance of these drafts according
to surplus value per season to give recent draft classes a chance to compete
with those older classes in which most or all the players have finished their
careers. Looking at surplus rather than absolute value will keep us from
rewarding teams with high draft picks simply for being there.
Number 10: 1998
Indianapolis Colts – 3.4% Surplus[1]
The second-best player in this draft class is center Steve
McKinney. He exceeded the expected value of the 93rd pick by over
150%, though most of this excess value came from playing 10 seasons rather than
the expected 5. His per-season value was 1.6% against an expectation of 1.3%.
This draft, of course, was not about the second-best
player. Peyton Manning was picked first overall by the Colts and has gone on to
have the best career of any draft pick, first or otherwise, in the Salary Cap
era. Manning’s value per season is an astronomical 11.6%, well above the 4.6%
expected of a first-overall pick. To put this in perspective, 11.6% in value
represents slightly above a Pro Bowl output level (the average salary of the
top 6 QBs) every single year of his career.
Outside of Manning and McKinney the Colts did not have a
single player who exceeded the expectation for their draft slot. Wide receiver
Jerome Pathon, LB Antony Jordan and WR E.G. Green were the other picks to make
it multiple seasons, but Pathon’s 4 seasons as a starter represent the only
such seasons outside of Manning and McKinney.
Number 9: 2001
Cincinnati Bengals – 3.6% Surplus
Compared to the 1998 Colts, the Bengals took the opposite
approach to a high-performing draft with their 2001 effort, bringing in four
players who each added significant value over their expectation.
The headliner in this class was Chad Ochocinco (nee
Johnson) with 5.0% value per season compared to the 2.0% per season expected of
the 36th pick. With 6 Pro Bowl and 2 All Pro seasons, Johnson is one
of the top WRs selected in the Salary Cap era. Only Marvin Harrison and Terrell
Owens delivered a higher per-season surplus. DE Justin Smith, RB Rudi Johnson
and WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh each brought in approximately 1% in surplus value
per season, and each of them made at least one Pro Bowl as well.
The only real bust in this draft is TE Sean Brewer. At
the 66th pick, the Bengals were looking for at least 1.5% of Salary Cap
Value per season. Unfortunately, they discovered shortly after drafting him
that Brewer was a smoker with a three-pack-a-day habit. He played 12 games,
starting two, in his short career and underperformed even more strongly when
looking at whole career numbers, delivering 1.0% in value for his career
against an expectation of 8.4% given his draft position.
Number 8: 2006 New
Orleans Saints – 3.7% Surplus
This is the first of our top ten where the top pick
turned out to be a bust. Reggie Bush, selected at number two overall, is
bringing in only about half of the expected 4.1% value per season. The three
picks to follow, however, delivered above expectations with tackle Jahri Evans
as the standout. Evans has been selected to the All-Pro team three times in his
first six seasons. This would be sufficient for a tackle in the first overall
pick, so it is well above expectations for one picked 108th overall.
DB Roman Harper, DE Rob Ninkovich and WR Marques Colston
combined for a further 3% in surplus value per season. Only one player, DB Josh
Lay, failed to suit up for a single season. The other underperformers besides
Bush and Lay were WR Mike Hass and G Zach Strief.
Number 7: 2001 San
Diego Chargers – 3.9% Surplus
Nothing to see here, just two players at or near the top
of their respective positions. Drafting Drew Brees and LaDanian Tomlinson set
the Chargers up for their run of competitiveness throughout the 2000s. Brees
has racked up one All-Pro and five Pro Bowl seasons while Tomlinson has three
All-Pro and the same five Pro Bowl seasons.
Because Brees was drafted later and plays a more valuable
position, his contributions result in a much higher surplus. The 32nd
pick in the draft is expected to contribute 2.1% of the salary cap in annual
value. Brees has pulled in 4x that number per season so far in his career. Tomlinson’s
contributions, while still impressive at 4.0% Salary Cap Value per season,
result in surplus of only 0.6% annually.
The remainder of this draft contains exactly one player
who exceeded their expectation (tackle Brandon Gorin with 1.2% rather than the
expected 1.0% value per season). The other five players give back 3% in surplus
value per season, but still leave the 2001 Chargers draft as the 7th
best since 1994.
Number 6: 2004
Arizona Cardinals – 4.7% Surplus
The 2004 draft by the Cardinals is even more balanced
than the 2001 Bengals. The highest surplus belongs to DT Darnell Dockett at
1.9% surplus salary cap value per season while the lowest goes to C Alex
Stepanovich at -0.5%.
Wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald is by far the most
valuable player for his career, but he was taken third overall and that carries
much higher expectations. His total career value is nearly 60% higher than
Dockett. LB Karlos Dansby and DE Antonio Smith round out the top performers in
this draft and formed the core of the defense that supported QB Kurt Warner’s offense
in their run to the 2009 Super Bowl.
Only player besides Stepanovich, QB John Navarre, failed
to deliver surplus value. Notably every single player the Cardinals drafted in
2004 stayed in the league for at least two seasons, a feat matched by only 14%
of drafts since 1994.
Be sure to check out… the top five drafts since 1994
[1]
Surplus here represents surplus value per player per season. If the draft class
contained two players who each played two seasons and one player who played a
single season for five total seasons played, we would expect the total surplus
to be 5x the number quoted here.
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