It’s college football season again, and I am excited
about the possibilities. Week one brings an excellent out-of-conference matchup
between Alabama and Michigan played at a neutral site in Dallas that, according
to preseason polls, features two of the top ten teams in the country. But are Alabama
and Michigan really in the top ten, or are they coasting on their considerable
reputations?
Methodology
In evaluating whether teams are properly rated, the first
thing that comes to mind is to simply compare preseason and postseason polls.
The difference in rankings would show up as a positive (underrated) or negative
(overrated) change from preseason to postseason. The weakness with this
method is that it treats all spots as the same. A team rated 20th
going into the season that finishes 24th would be a -4, just like a
team that rated 1st going into the season and finished 5th.
To me, the second miss should be more significant because the gap between the 1st
and 5th best team in the country should be much larger than that
between the 20th and 24th best teams (think of the far
right of a bell curve vs. the area closer to the middle). Because of the system
that adds weight to movements at the top it will be extremely hard for a team
to show up as overrated without being in the top portion of the polls, but that
seems like a reasonable proposition as a team starting in the high teens cannot
be considered highly rated. Now we just have to think about the best way to
systematically account for errors in different ranges of the poll.
In a previous
post, I used the average postseason Sagarin points to account for the
varying differences between teams from the top (larger gaps) to the bottom of
the poll (smaller gaps). While using votes for each team is another option, it
relies on the polls themselves – which we are examining for flaws – rather than
a reasonably reliable third party. The Sagarin rankings are postseason but, in
theory, that’s what the preseason rankings are striving for. Check out the demonstration
of the dropoff in points from 1 through 25 displayed nearby (this will help
provide context for the numbers in the tables below). Now that we have a
methodology, let’s put it to work.
1950s
Most Underrated
|
Most Overrated
|
||
 |
Syracuse (39)
Under: 4 seasons
Equal: none
Over: none
|
 |
Notre Dame (-55)
Under: 2 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 8 seasons
|
 |
Mississippi (25)
Under: 5 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 2 seasons
|
 |
SMU (-24)
Under: none
Equal: none
Over: 4 seasons
|
 |
Clemson (18)
Under: 5 seasons
Equal: none
Over: none
|
 |
Ohio State (-24)
Under: 3 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 7 seasons
|
 |
Iowa (18)
Under: 4 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 3 seasons
|
 |
Michigan (-23)
Under: 3 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 4 seasons
|
 |
Auburn (16)
Under: 5 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 1 season
|
 |
Oklahoma (-18)
Under: 3 seasons
Equal: 2 seasons
Over: 5 seasons
|
Notre Dame stands out as being hugely overrated in this
decade. The 5.5 Sagarin points per year could represent the difference between
unranked and 13th, 10th and 4th or 1st
and 3rd (it’s a sliding scale!). The pattern that emerges from the
two sides of the table is that second-
or third-tier teams fill up the underrated side while the overrated teams
are almost exclusively top-tier.
1960s
Most Underrated
|
Most Overrated
|
||
 |
Arkansas (35)
Under: 6 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 3 seasons
|
|
Syracuse (-30)
Under: none
Equal: none
Over: 5 seasons
|
 |
Missouri (33)
Under: 4 seasons
Equal: none
Over: none
|
 |
Texas (-26)
Under: 4 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 5 seasons
|
 |
Minnesota (30)
Under: 3 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 2 seasons
|
|
Oklahoma (-23)
Under: 2 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 5 seasons
|
 |
LSU (16)
Under: 3 seasons
Equal: 1 season
Over: 2 seasons
|
 |
Washington (-19)
Under: none
Equal: none
Over: 4 seasons
|
 |
Navy (15)
Under: 2 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 1 seasons
|
|
Ohio State (-17)
Under: 2 seasons
Equal: 1 season
Over: 5 seasons
|
Two other patterns of note appear in this decade. First,
Ohio State and Oklahoma are holdovers. This will continue throughout as they
appear in the top five four (OSU) and five (Oklahoma) times, the highest two
teams. Second, Syracuse goes from being the most underrated team to being the
most overrated team. No other schools go from first to worst, but several make
the jump between sides of the table in future decades.
1970s
Most Underrated
|
Most Overrated
|
||
 |
Houston (25)
Under: 5 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 3 seasons
|
|
Ohio State (-32)
Under: 1 season
Equal: 2 seasons
Over: 7 seasons
|
|
Oklahoma (18)
Under: 4 seasons
Equal: 5 seasons
Over: 1 season
|
|
Michigan (-20)
Under: 3 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 7 seasons
|
 |
Miami (Ohio)
(15)
Under: 3 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 1 season
|
|
Texas (-19)
Under: 3 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 7 seasons
|
 |
Pittsburgh (12)
Under: 3 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 3 seasons
|
 |
Penn State (-18)
Under: 4 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 6 seasons
|
 |
Toledo (11)
Under: 2 seasons
Equal: none
Over: none
|
|
Arkansas (-16)
Under: 3 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 6 seasons
|
Here, at the height of the Ten Year War between
Ohio State and Michigan, we see that those two Big Ten dominating powers may
have been a bit overrated. In fact they were ranked 19 of 20 possible times in
the preseason (Ohio State in 1979 being the exception, though those Buckeyes
finished the season ranked number four) with all 18 of those being in the top
ten. They were only underrated in three of the 19 observations. The poll got it
exactly right two times and overrated them the other 14 times, two of which saw
them finish the season unranked. Arkansas was this decade’s swing from
underrated to overrated while Oklahoma went the other way on the strength of
two national titles, two second place finishes and three thirds. Remarkably the
preseason poll predicted Oklahoma’s final position correctly five times during
this decade, a record tied by Florida State in the 1990s.
1980s
Most Underrated
|
Most Overrated
|
||
 |
Miami (Fla.)
(63)
Under: 8 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 2 seasons
|
|
Oklahoma (-51)
Under: 2 seasons
Equal: 1 season
Over: 7 seasons
|
 |
BYU (30)
Under: 4 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 3 seasons
|
|
Ohio State (-35)
Under: 3 seasons
Equal: 1 season
Over: 5 seasons
|
 |
Georgia (28)
Under: 5 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 2 seasons
|
 |
Nebraska (-33)
Under: 2 seasons
Equal: 1 season
Over: 7 seasons
|
 |
Oklahoma State
(18)
Under: 3 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 1 season
|
 |
USC (-31)
Under: 2 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 7 seasons
|
 |
West Virginia
(17)
Under: 4 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 1 season
|
 |
Alabama (-30)
Under: 2 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 7 seasons
|
With all those points headed to Miami, they had to come
from somewhere. Those points came from the elite football schools. The top
three overrated teams were more overrated than the number one from the 70s and
all five were more overrated than the number one from the 60s. BYU exploded on
the strength of the 1984 season in which they started unranked and ended up
number one, worth 20 points.
1990s
Most Underrated
|
Most Overrated
|
||
 |
Kansas State (29)
Under: 6 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 1 season
|
|
Notre Dame (-43)
Under: 1 season
Equal: 1 season
Over: 8 seasons
|
 |
Virginia Tech
(21)
Under: 5 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 1 season
|
|
USC (-30)
Under: 1 season
Equal: none
Over: 7 seasons
|
 |
Washington State
(15)
Under: 3 seasons
Equal: none
Over: none
|
|
Miami (Fla.)
(-21)
Under: 2 seasons
Equal: 1 season
Over: 7 seasons
|
 |
Wisconsin (13)
Under: 3 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 3 seasons
|
 |
Texas A&M
(-19)
Under: 4 seasons
Equal: 1 season
Over: 5 seasons
|
 |
Oregon (13)
Under: 3 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 3 seasons
|
|
Penn State (-16)
Under: 5 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 5 seasons
|
The underrateds turned in much lower totals in the 1990s
as elite teams generally dominated (the top five teams in overall points were
Florida State, Nebraska, Florida, Tennessee and Michigan) after starting high,
justifying their preseason rankings. Florida State actually landed precisely in
their preseason place five times during the decade. Miami (Fla.) flip flops to
the overrated side after having an incredibly strong run in the 1980s.
Since 2000 (12
seasons)
Most Underrated
|
Most Overrated
|
||
 |
Utah (30)
Under: 4 seasons
Equal: none
Over: none
|
 |
Florida State
(-53)
Under: 3 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 9 seasons
|
 |
TCU (29)
Under: 5 seasons
Equal: 3 seasons
Over: 2 seasons
|
|
Oklahoma (-41)
Under: 2 seasons
Equal: 1 season
Over: 9 seasons
|
|
Oregon (29)
Under: 7 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 4 seasons
|
 |
Tennessee (-33)
Under: 3 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 6 seasons
|
 |
Boise State (26)
Under: 6 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 4 seasons
|
|
Nebraska (-32)
Under: 3 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 7 seasons
|
|
Auburn (18)
Under: 6 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 4 seasons
|
 |
Florida (-29)
Under: 3 seasons
Equal: none
Over: 9 seasons
|
Oregon pulls off the rarely seen two-decades-in-a-row
underrated. Florida State, Nebraska and Florida follow up their runs in the
1990s with more up-and-down performances in the 2000s. Oklahoma surprises in
2000 for the title, but ends up falling short the rest of the period: 9 of the
next 11 seasons registered as underperformance.
Informed poll watching
If you really want to use the preseason poll (I don’t
recommend it) here are some guidelines for making it useful. Take a look at
last year’s final ranking for each team. The higher the final ranking from last
year, the more likely it is that that team is overrated in the preseason poll.
Poll voters have relatively little data to go on, so they go with last year’s
results (a
problem not limited to college football observers) when the reality is that
teams vary much more widely from year to year.
 | |
|
This graph demonstrates the bias towards last year’s
teams present in current year preseason polling. Any team that was ranked at
the conclusion of the previous season has more than a 50% probability of being
overrated. Those that were ranked in the top five to finish the season are more
than 70% likely to be overrated in this season’s poll.
If we apply this logic to the current AP preseason poll,
we find a lot of opportunities for skepticism. The final top five from last
year – Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma State, Oregon and Arkansas – is very highly rated
this year – Second, Third, 19th, Fifth and Tenth. The data suggest
that only one team is likely to live up to their ranking.
The only cohort that systematically exceeds their
preseason ranking is the group of teams who finished the previous season
unranked. Watch out for Texas, Ohio State, Florida and Louisville to outperform
their rankings. History suggests that three quarters of all teams who were
unranked to finish the previous year will finish higher than their preseason
rankings.
2012 Preseason
|
2011 Final
|
Team
|
1
|
6
|
USC
|
2
|
1
|
Alabama
|
3
|
2
|
LSU
|
4
|
16
|
Oklahoma
|
5
|
4
|
Oregon
|
6
|
19
|
Georgia
|
7
|
23
|
Florida State
|
8
|
12
|
Michigan
|
9
|
9
|
South Carolina
|
10
|
5
|
Arkansas
|
11
|
17
|
West Virginia
|
12
|
10
|
Wisconsin
|
13
|
11
|
Michigan State
|
14
|
22
|
Clemson
|
15
|
NR
|
Texas
|
16
|
21
|
Virginia Tech
|
17
|
24
|
Nebraska
|
18
|
NR
|
Ohio State
|
19
|
3
|
Oklahoma State
|
20
|
14
|
TCU
|
21
|
7
|
Stanford
|
22
|
15
|
Kansas State
|
23
|
NR
|
Florida
|
24
|
8
|
Boise State
|
25
|
NR
|
Louisville
|
Check out last year’s final and this year’s preseason to
find other potentially overrated teams and get a leg up on identifying possible
surprises.
I?d have to check with you here. Which is not something I usually do! I enjoy reading a post that will make people think. Also, thanks for allowing me to comment!
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