A few reasons to be bullish on Big Ten football

I am admittedly a fan of Big Ten football. In the interest of maintaining some level of objectivity on the blog I tried to avoid being openly defensive about the league’s prospects. Since objectivity is not a huge issue on a blog that receives tens of visits per month, I want to engage with some comments that a friend of mine sent in response to my recent post on the Big Ten’s bowl season prospects.

His points are as follows:

- The Big Ten’s bowl lineup is unfavorable

- B1G draft picks perform strongly in the NFL

- Demographic shortcomings are overstated

- Cultural issues (coaching salaries/oversigning)

Bowl Lineup

I’ve written about this one tangentially (check out the top section of this post), but it bears repeating. The Big Ten, by virtue of being located almost entirely in a region that no one wants to visit in late December or early January, would be the visiting team for nearly any bowl. The fact that they compound the problem by playing the Pac-12 in Southern California, the Big 12 in Texas and the SEC in Florida is icing on the cake.

Best NFL Drafts in the Salary Cap Era (#5 to #1)

Note: Check out this article on how I think that draft picks should be valued to see the methodology behind my approach.

Drafts Ten through Six can be found here.

Number 5: 2005 New England Patriots – 4.9% Surplus[1]

Player	Pos	Pick	Avg. Value per Season	Avg Pick AV/S	Surplus
Logan Mankins	G	32	3.4%	2.1%	1.3%
Ellis Hobbs	DB	84	1.7%	1.4%	0.4%
Nick Kaczur	T	100	3.0%	1.2%	1.8%
James Sanders	DB	133	1.0%	1.1%	-0.1%
Ryan Claridge	LB	170	0.0%	1.0%	-1.0%
Matt Cassel	QB	230	4.4%	0.9%	3.4%
Andy Stokes	TE	255	0.0%	0.9%	-0.9%

Ok, ok, I know where everyone[2] is looking first. Matt Cassel’s last couple of seasons have not been great, but from 2008 to 2010 he gave every indication that he was going to develop into a quality player. He obviously played very well in relief of Tom Brady after the latter’s knee gave out under the weight of scandal (and a direct hit from a helmet). Now forgotten is that he made the 2010 Pro Bowl on the merits of a very strong season (3116 yards, 58% completion, 27 TDs, 7 INTs, 93.0 QB rating). Regardless of how bad he appears to be right now, getting three competent (and a few less so) seasons at the most important position on the field is a very favorable outcome for the 230^th pick.

Outside of the Cassel situation, offensive linemen Logan Mankins and Nick Kaczur drove this class to its lofty ranking. Kaczur may not be the name that Mankins is and definitely would be hurt if we looked at total value (as opposed to AV/S – Mankins has 24% and Kaczur 15% as of the end of the 2011 season), but he started 62 games over 5 seasons at tackle.

What is really remarkable about this draft is that the Patriots held very few top picks. Compared to the others on this list they came into the draft with a significantly lower “top” pick. All of the other teams held the #11 or better while the Patriots best pick was the last of the first round.

Number 4: 1996 Baltimore Ravens – 5.5% Surplus

Player	Pos	Pick	Avg. Value per Season	Avg Pick AV/S	Surplus
Jonathan Ogden	T	4	7.1%	3.6%	3.6%
Ray Lewis	LB	26	5.3%	2.2%	3.1%
DeRon Jenkins	DB	55	1.4%	1.7%	-0.3%
Jermaine Lewis	WR	153	2.1%	1.1%	1.1%
Dexter Daniels	LB	172	0.4%	1.0%	-0.6%
James Roe	WR	186	0.5%	1.0%	-0.5%
Jon Stark	QB	238	0.0%	0.9%	-0.9%

Nothing fancy about this. The Ravens hit the ball out of the park on both of their first round picks and ensured that the franchise would be on a very different trajectory in Baltimore than it was in Cleveland. I can’t say anything more without getting extremely negative so I will just move on.

Number 3: 2004 San Diego Chargers – 5.7% Surplus

Player	Pos	Pick	Avg. Value per Season	Avg Pick AV/S	Surplus
Eli Manning	QB	1	5.7%	4.6%	1.1%
Igor Olshansky	DE	35	3.2%	2.0%	1.2%
Nate Kaeding	PK	65	1.0%	1.6%	-0.6%
Nick Hardwick	C	66	2.1%	1.5%	0.5%
Shaun Phillips	DE	98	3.3%	1.3%	2.1%
Dave Ball	DE	133	1.0%	1.1%	-0.1%
Michael Turner	RB	154	2.3%	1.1%	1.3%
Ryan Krause	TE	169	0.5%	1.0%	-0.5%
Ryon Bingham	DT	204	0.4%	1.0%	-0.6%
Shane Olivea	T	209	3.0%	1.0%	2.1%
Carlos Joseph	T	254	0.0%	0.9%	-0.9%

Well this is awkward. These are the weaknesses of running a system with players ranked solely based on who drafted them, special cases tend to cause problems. If we reallocate the players based on draft day trades, the Chargers lose Manning (1.1% surplus) and gain Philip Rivers (3.0% surplus) so they would actually check in with a 7.6% surplus and come in first overall. Those are the breaks.

As it was the Chargers still laid the foundation for their late 2000s run of success with Rivers, Shaun Phillips, Igor Olshansky, Shane Olivea and Michael Turner all playing major roles – as well as Shawne Merriman, who arrived in 2005 as an additional pick included in the Eli Manning trade.

Number 2: 2006 Denver Broncos – 6.4% Surplus

Player	Pos	Pick	Avg. Value per Season	Avg Pick AV/S	Surplus
Jay Cutler	QB	11	5.7%	2.8%	2.9%
Tony Scheffler	TE	61	0.8%	1.6%	-0.8%
Brandon Marshall	WR	119	3.8%	1.1%	2.7%
Elvis Dumervil	DE	126	3.8%	1.1%	2.7%
Domenik Hixon	WR	130	0.5%	1.1%	-0.6%
Chris Kuper	G	161	1.6%	1.0%	0.5%
Greg Eslinger	C	198	0.0%	1.0%	-1.0%

While lacking the breadth of the Chargers’ haul in third place, the Broncos put together a very strong class on the backs of three elite players. Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and Elvis Dumervil provided all the surplus value needed to push this draft to number two overall.

Number 1: 2005 Dallas Cowboys – 7.3% Surplus

Player	Pos	Pick	Avg. Value per Season	Avg Pick AV/S	Surplus
DeMarcus Ware	LB	11	5.7%	2.8%	2.8%
Marcus R. Spears	DE	20	2.7%	2.4%	0.3%
Kevin Burnett	LB	42	0.9%	1.9%	-0.9%
Marion Barber	RB	109	1.7%	1.2%	0.5%
Chris L. Canty	DE	132	2.7%	1.1%	1.6%
Justin Beriault	DB	208	0.0%	1.0%	-1.0%
Rob Petitti	T	209	0.9%	1.0%	-0.1%
Jay Ratliff	DE	224	4.9%	0.9%	3.9%

The Cowboys managed to hit home runs on their first and last picks in this draft, with solid picks through the middle to not give back that value. Ware is one of the top 30 players in overall value per season while Jay Ratliff has the 13^th highest individual surplus in the Salary Cap era. Bill Parcells ensured with this draft that he would leave Dallas better than he found it when he departed after the 2006 season.

---

[1] Surplus here represents surplus value per player per season. If the draft class contained two players who each played two seasons and one player who played a single season for five total seasons played, we would expect the total surplus to be 5x the number quoted here.

[2] I also realize that “everyone” is comprised of approximately 13 pageviews from me and one random one from Russia.